When the climate shifts, so does power
Climate change is having an increasingly visible impact on human lives and planetary conditions with each passing day. Such changes involve long-term temperature and prevailing weather changes, both in specific geographic regions and on a global scale. The rise in global temperatures leads to the accelerated melting of ice masses, resulting in rising sea levels and posing an existential threat to island and coastal nations. Climate change came with the emerging natural resource extraction possibilities. An illustrative example is the Arctic region, which is abundantly rich in resources. Once the polar ice melts, oil, gas, and mineral deposits will become reachable, stirring strategic rivalry between Arctic and non-Arctic states. In this last respect, Russia, the United States, and China are enhancing their military and economic presence, raising anxieties about future territory and navigation rights conflicts.
However, climate change has not recently influenced political relations, agricultural production, migration, and resource access. Human history is, in fact, full of stories. One such instance occurred in China during the 9th century when less rain fell upon the land due to the weakening of summer monsoons. The lack of food sparked a peasant rebellion that contributed to the fall of the Tang Dynasty.
On the other hand, an emblematic example of climate’s impact on migration is the expansion of the Vikings from northern Europe toward Iceland, Greenland, and Newfoundland, enabled by a milder climate. The year 1816 became known as “the year without a summer” due to a global climate anomaly caused by the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815.
This massive eruption released vast amounts of volcanic material, forming a cloud that blocked sunlight and lowered global temperatures by 1 to 4 degrees Celsius.
Modern civilisation is facing new forms of conflict linked to climate change. A key characteristic of this phenomenon is its progressive nature and the lack of immediately visible consequences, which reduces the willingness of individuals and societies to take preventive measures. The number of people who have lost their lives directly or indirectly due to climate change is growing year by year. Global warming leads to the depletion of freshwater supplies, arable land, and food resources, which drives population migrations and fuels geopolitical conflicts over territory and resources. Nature is unpredictable! A single tsunami can destroy the lives of millions. At the same time, a volcanic super-eruption (such as Yellowstone in the US or Taupo in New Zealand) could trigger a prolonged civilisational crisis, with the collapse of agricultural production, famine, wars, infrastructure breakdown, and mass migrations. The cataclysmic eruption of the Toba volcano on Sumatra approximately 74,000 years ago caused such drastic climate changes that, according to the “bottleneck theory” based on mitochondrial DNA analysis, only 3,000 to 10,000 human individuals are believed to have survived.
Droughts, water wars and migration crises
Changes in the global climate through excessive heat, unusual weather extremes and disruption in the ecosystem have changed the balance of power and complicated conflicts between nations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises the issue of global warming, which worsens other existing threats and increases the chances of new security threats.
Global warming has already started to add to the underlying pressures of asymmetric relations among states by increasing vital stakes such as water and food resources, while the forced migrations caused by the change in the climate are rebuilding the state borders.
Among the numerous problems caused by climate change, the issue of water security stands out. Regions such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are particularly at risk, given that they are extremely arid areas with insufficient rainfall and uneven distribution of water resources. At the beginning of the 21st century, the UN included water security as a significant issue in its global agenda and international documents. Inadequate state and regional policies, coupled with conflicts and crises, could lead to water wars in the future.
The MENA region is heavily burdened by drinking water shortages and water for irrigation. The main problem was recognised decades ago, but little progress has been made in solving it, and the situation remains stagnant, with a tendency to worsen in the medium and long term. Even seawater desalination would not compensate for this region’s current water capacity deficits, mainly due to population growth and the demands of agriculture and industry. River basins such as the Nile, Jordan, Tigris, and Euphrates represent vital resources for the countries they flow through, as their populations largely depend on these water sources. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River presents a security threat to Egypt and, therefore, is another source of regional tensions.
Egypt gets 90% of its water from the Nile, making this a do-or-die dispute. Similarly, the Tigris and Euphrates rivers sustain many people’s lives in the Middle East. Still, Türkiye’s unilateral actions endanger other countries in the basin, contributing to a conflict-prone environment. Groundwater disputes have often surfaced as a significant point of disagreement throughout the long Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This issue has always been an impediment to achieving mutually agreeable peace accords.
The rise in sea levels will reduce the land area of many countries with low-lying coastal zones, and many island nations will completely disappear from the world map, meaning the inevitable relocation of their populations. Another serious problem is the intrusion of seawater into inland reservoirs, which will reduce the availability of drinking water and the possibility of agricultural land use. As a result of such events, forced displacement of part or all of a region’s population will occur, and these displaced people are often labelled as “climate refugees”. This term lacks formal recognition in international legal frameworks. Under the 1951 Refugee Convention, “a refugee” is defined as an individual who flees national boundaries due to a legitimate fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political affiliation.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) explicitly discourages the use of the term “climate refugee”, advocating instead for the more precise designation of “persons displaced in the context of disasters and climate change” to reflect the legal and operational realities of such displacement. However, most displacement caused by climate-related factors occurs internally rather than across international borders.
According to statistical data by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), weather-related hazards, including floods, storms, wildfires, and droughts, forced the displacement of an annual average of 21.5 million people between 2008 and 2016. In 2022, displacement numbers reached the historical sum of 32.6 million. Considering extreme disasters are foreseen to increase in occurrence and intensity, they have a projected potential to displace up to 1.2 billion people worldwide by 2050. UNHCR collaborates with national governments to draft legal instruments to protect persons displaced by climate change. Since the phenomena are transnational, governments could not prepare for an enormous influx of so-called “climate refugees” on their own, thus necessitating international cooperation and multilateral arrangements for an effective response.
The Rise of Climate Diplomacy
For the reasons stated, climate diplomacy must offer solutions and preventive actions to mitigate the natural effects of climate change, even though they ultimately cannot be entirely prevented. However, the portion of climate change caused by human activity can be eradicated through political and technological solutions. According to data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), measurements show that alongside rising greenhouse gas concentrations, every year since 2015 has been among the hottest on record since global temperature tracking began, with 2024 as the warmest year on record (1.5 °C above the pre-industrial period average).
In this context, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as “a change of climate that is directly or indirectly attributed to human activity, altering the composition of the global atmosphere, and which is observed alongside natural climate variability over comparable periods.”
The evidence is clear that human-driven climate change is accelerating, and its impacts are already reshaping our perception of transportation, food and energy production. The question now is not whether it’s happening, but how we respond.
The Conference of the Parties (COP) under the UNFCCC serves as the primary forum for multilateral negotiations on climate policy. Key milestones in international climate governance are COP3 and COP21, popularly known as the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015). The Kyoto Protocol imposed legally binding emission reduction targets on developed countries, while developing countries were not subject to such obligations. This approach was taken on „common but differentiated responsibilities.” However, with the Paris Agreement, a switch occurred: binding targets gave way to voluntary and nationally determined contributions, where countries can now establish emission reduction targets. This bottom-up approach was undertaken to garner greater participation from all countries. This has implications for developing countries, which are now required to undertake emission mitigation activities. The next one, COP30, will be held in Brazil in November 2025, and regardless of weak enforcement mechanisms, the COP process remains indispensable to fighting against the adverse effects of climate change.
Efforts to address climate change through diplomacy face numerous challenges, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Yet, there are opportunities to foster cooperation and address global threats faced in common. Yet, these same conditions present opportunities for cooperation on shared global threats. The success of these international efforts will ultimately be measured by how states rise to these challenges and promote collective climate action for a more sustainable and equitable world. However, the success of climate diplomacy can be ensured only with unwavering commitment, an inclusive approach, and integration of climate concerns into other foreign policy issues.
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