T25 non-aligned countries and new geopolitics

T25 (Transactional 25) is the name given by the Economist for a diverse group of countries that runs transactional, opportunistic and pragmatic diplomacy.

The rise of Non-Aligned countries is an increasingly important factor in global affairs. They currently account for 45% of the world’s population, and their share of global GDP has risen from 11% when the Berlin Wall fell to 18% today.

The non-aligned countries oppose “automatic alignments”. They are not allied with the US, China, or Russia. They are not defined by their membership in an institution but rather by their characteristics and behaviour.

The most prominent members of t25 are Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia.

Non-Aligned countries have limited confidence in the institutions of the post-1945 American-led order, such as the UN or IMF, and examples such as OPEC, the oil cartel, being more assertive, or Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva promoting a “peace club” to end Ukraine war, show the increasing importance of Non-Aligned countries. India also wants to use its presidency of the G20 this year to lobby for the Global South.

China, Russia, and US/EU must compete for influence among non-aligned countries. China is the main trading partner for around 120 countries, providing more infrastructure financing in sub-Saharan Africa than the next eight lenders combined. America and its allies are trying to recalibrate their message to the non-aligned world, as the West is augmenting alliances and imposing sanctions on Russia, and restricting Chinese access to technology. As the global order fragments, the rise of Non-Aligned countries is an increasingly important factor in global affairs.