AI diplomacy

AI and the geopolitical reality

For centuries, power was defined by territory, armies, and economic might. Today, a new element is paramount: data and the intelligence used to process it. A nation’s standing is increasingly tied to its technological prowess, creating a new and complex geopolitical map.

We see this most clearly in the strategic competition between the United States and China, which is often described as a “race for AI dominance.” But it is more than a race. It is a deep realignment of power structures. The challenge for diplomacy is that this new form of power is less tangible and moves at an incredible speed. A commercial breakthrough in a lab can have immediate military and security implications. This “dual-use” dilemma is a classic problem for diplomats, but its velocity today is unprecedented. It demands constant dialogue simply to maintain stability and avoid miscalculation.

AI as a topic on the diplomatic agenda

If the geopolitical shift is the new environment, then the substance of our talks is how we shape it. Diplomats are now tasked with building a global consensus on the governance of AI. This is the core work of AI diplomacy.

We are, in essence, searching for a common language to discuss AI ethics, safety, and security. We can see the early results of this search. The UNESCO Recommendation on the Ethics of AI provides a global normative foundation, a shared set of principles agreed upon by 193 countries. Initiatives like the Global Partnership on AI (GPAI) create a space for experts to translate these principles into practice.

Even the most intense rivalries require dialogue. The 2024 U.S.-China talks on AI risk management are a clear signal that when faced with a powerful, unpredictable technology, communication between great powers is not a choice, but a necessity. We are building the rules of the road for the 21st century, just as past generations did for telecommunications, aviation, and nuclear energy.

AI as a tool for diplomacy

Beyond the high-level negotiations, AI is also entering the diplomat’s toolkit. Data is the new currency of international relations, and AI is the engine that can process it.

This is not about replacing the diplomat. It is about augmenting human capabilities. AI tools can analyse vast quantities of text to identify trends, support legal analysis, and even facilitate communication across language barriers. A diplomat can be better informed and more efficient.

However, we must remain masters of our tools. The final analysis, the subtle art of negotiation, the building of trust; these remain profoundly human activities. AI can prepare the ground for a decision, but the wisdom to make that decision must come from a person.

Policy implications of AI

The far-reaching implications of AI on policy require careful attention across multiple areas, including economics, safety, security, privacy, and ethics. While AI promises economic growth through increased efficiency, automation also brings significant disruptions, such as labor market challenges and concerns over job displacement. There are opposing views on the impact of AI on employment: while some fear mass unemployment due to automation, others believe AI will create new job opportunities that can offset losses.

AI also raises concerns regarding safety, security, and privacy. AI-driven systems, such as autonomous vehicles, must be designed to safely handle unforeseen situations, and the cybersecurity risks associated with AI technologies need to be addressed. Privacy and data protection are particularly pertinent, given that AI systems often require massive datasets, which can include sensitive personal information. It is crucial that developers embed privacy guarantees and data integrity within AI applications.

National AI strategies

When a new and powerful technology emerges, nations face a fundamental choice: to react to its effects or to proactively shape its course. With artificial intelligence, we are now observing a clear global trend toward the latter.

Across the world, governments are drafting national AI strategies. This is more than just a policy exercise; it is a modern form of statecraft. Each strategy is a declaration of intent, an answer to the critical questions of how to harness AI for economic prosperity, social well-being, and national security.

Let us consider the different approaches. We see strategies driven by immense ambition, such as China’s 2017 plan, which explicitly aims for global leadership in AI by 2030 with a domestic industry to match. This is a clear statement of geopolitical and economic purpose.

Then we see strategies focused on governance and national readiness. The United Arab Emirates, for example, not only adopted a AI strategy but also appointed a dedicated Minister for AI. This signals an understanding that harnessing AI requires new structures within the state itself, designed to prepare the entire country for this technological shift.

Pioneers like Canada, France, Germany, and Mauritius were among the first to formalise their approaches, each reflecting their own national priorities and ethical considerations.

This is not an isolated trend, but a worldwide movement. At  Digital Watch observatory, we are tracking these national AI strategies as they emerge. What this map shows is a global conversation taking shape. While often viewed through a competitive lens, these documents also form a new basis for diplomacy. They are concrete expressions of national policy, allowing us to compare, contrast, and ultimately find common ground on the governance of this important technology.

Ethical and legal considerations

When we ask an algorithm to make a decision: to grant a loan, to assist in a medical diagnosis, or to identify a suspect, we are delegating a process that has, for millennia, been a human one. This act of delegation brings us to a series of profound ethical and legal questions. The central issue is not about the technology itself, but about how it reflects our own societies and values.

The most immediate challenge is that of bias. An AI system is not born with prejudice; it learns from the data we provide. If the data reflects the biases present in our society, the AI will not only replicate them, it may amplify them with ruthless efficiency.

This reality forces us to confront a fundamental legal question. Is it enough to adapt our existing laws, created for a world of human actors, or does this new reality demand entirely new legal frameworks? The global conversation is shifting toward the latter. We are seeing countries around the world developing specific AI strategies, trying to find the delicate balance between encouraging innovation and creating necessary safeguards. The question is not simply about writing new laws, but about how we translate our most enduring legal principles, due process, liability, and fairness into the language of code.

In response, we are exploring solutions along three parallel paths.

First, we must focus on the human creator. The responsibility begins with the technologist. Initiatives like the IEEE’s Global Initiative are vital because they work to embed ethical considerations into the very education and practice of engineering.

Second, we must build our values into the technology itself. This is the idea of “fairness by design”, where we proactively work to identify and correct for biases in the system, rather than waiting to be surprised by its failures.

Finally, we must insist on transparency. Much of the work today is focused on solving the “black box” problem by creating “explainable AI”. We must be able to ask the system: On what basis did you make this decision? This ability to question and understand is not a technical feature; it is a prerequisite for accountability and public trust.

Ultimately, the challenge of governing AI is a mirror. It forces us to examine the fairness and justice of our own societies. Our goal is not simply to build better machines, but to use this technological moment as an opportunity to build better, more equitable human systems.

Courses and training

Diplo’s training in AI is anchored in a survey of competencies – talents, knowledge, and skills – of relevance for AI and diplomacy. Read more here: What are diplomatic competencies for the AI era?  These competencies are developed and nurtured through courses and training activities as described in How to train diplomats for the AI?

Diplo studies and reports

The impact of AI on diplomacy

Mapping AI’s challenges and opportunities for the conduct of diplomacy

Building on DiploFoundation’s continuous research on the relationship between technology and diplomacy – and the recent report on Data Diplomacy, commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland, as well as the ongoing mapping of developments in artificial intelligence (AI) undertaken by the GIP Digital Watch observatory – Diplo’s AI Lab is partnering with institutions to progress the research and capacity development in the area of AI and diplomacy.

One of our research projects will Map AI’s challenges and opportunities for the conduct of diplomacy. With AI’s entry into all aspects of society, it will inevitably influence diplomacy. The more deeply AI is integrated into society, the larger the effect will be on the context in which diplomats operate. Broadly speaking, our aim is to understanding how AI, both existing applications and future developments, will impact the conduct of diplomacy.

Our research as part of the inception study is being conducted in four areas:

1. In the first area of research, we aim to give a brief overview of the broad impact of AI on the conduct of diplomacy, building on DiploFoundation’s three-part typology which maps AI in relation to diplomatic practice in three areas:

• AI as a tool for diplomatic practice
• AI as a topic for diplomatic negotiations
• AI as an element shaping the environment in which diplomacy is practised

2. In the second area of research, we are providing an overview of national recommendations and policies regarding AI. A number of countries have begun to work towards national AI strategies. We give an overview of these (emerging) strategies and analyse trends.
3. In the third area of research, AI as a tool for diplomacy, we are giving an overview and access the advances of AI in analysing, recognising, and simulating human language. This has potential relevance for AI’s ability to support the work of diplomats and other foreign policy professionals in analysing internal and external text documents, analysing speeches and giving input for the content and framing of speeches, catching spam and unwanted messages, and identifying hate speech and combating the spread of terrorism content on social media platforms.
4. The fourth area of research zooms in on one specific implication of AI by looking at its human rights dimension. As AI algorithms involve judgements and decision-making – replacing similar human processes – concerns have been raised regarding ethics, fairness, justice, transparency, and accountability. In this area or research, we provide an overview of the key debates and give a future outlook.

[Update] Findings of the inception study became available in January 2019 and were presented during a launch event. The report on Mapping AI’s challenges and opportunities for the conduct of diplomacy maps the relation between AI and diplomacy, takes a look at national AI strategies in a comparative manner, explores the possibilities of AI as a tool for diplomacy, and highlights the impact of AI on human rights and the responsibilities of states.

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