A Chinese economist’s view of the future of the world economy
Updated on 07 September 2022
The Chinese world is creating interesting on-line newspapers. Ciaxin online – out of Beijing – is one of them. I now have an opportunity to introduce you to it.
Andy XIE, a West-trained economist based in Shanghai, has just published an article on the future of WTO.
His main line is that globalization’s benefits from trade have not reached the “losers” from the same process in the West: as a result structural problems have arisen. At the global level growth is unlikely to accelerate from the current lackluster performance – stagnation is likely to become the norm. This also applies to China, where he estimated productive overcapacity to be one trillion (50% of total exports).
WTO’s future may at best remain one of dealing with trade disputes. Further liberalization rounds are unlikely. Sliding back on overt or covert ways cannot be excluded.
I’d second the analysis – adding a political twist. Conflict flash-points seem to increase: Afghanistan, the Middle East (Iran, Syria etc.), China, Russia – it is as if everyone is itching for a fight at the moment.